Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 0.014777 0.016733 0.018854 0.021326 0.024129 0.027210 0.030855
2025-07-20 0.011836 0.014562 0.017774 0.021842 0.026862 0.032862 0.040591
2025-07-27 0.010296 0.013409 0.017292 0.022499 0.029311 0.037941 0.049735
2025-08-03 0.008912 0.012157 0.016395 0.022350 0.030523 0.041379 0.056954
2025-08-10 0.007904 0.011221 0.015733 0.022332 0.031773 0.044843 0.064403
2025-08-17 0.006982 0.010272 0.014908 0.021939 0.032376 0.047369 0.070674
2025-08-24 0.006409 0.009741 0.014593 0.022200 0.033882 0.051244 0.079189
2025-08-31 0.005817 0.009111 0.014054 0.022042 0.034703 0.054119 0.086396
2025-09-07 0.005468 0.008810 0.013968 0.022549 0.036558 0.058688 0.096619
2025-09-14 0.004895 0.008095 0.013166 0.021828 0.036365 0.059969 0.101591
2025-09-21 0.004485 0.007604 0.012671 0.021550 0.036845 0.062340 0.108535
2025-09-28 0.004039 0.007009 0.011950 0.020817 0.036476 0.063234 0.112976
2025-10-05 0.003891 0.006917 0.012075 0.021564 0.038755 0.068895 0.126436
2025-10-12 0.003715 0.006761 0.012075 0.022090 0.040690 0.074126 0.139635
2025-10-19 0.003576 0.006656 0.012152 0.022755 0.042923 0.080065 0.154680
2025-10-26 0.003331 0.006334 0.011809 0.022604 0.043612 0.083195 0.164628
2025-11-02 0.003128 0.006071 0.011550 0.022586 0.044541 0.086836 0.175884
2025-11-09 0.002895 0.005731 0.011117 0.022188 0.044684 0.088956 0.184256
2025-11-16 0.002762 0.005575 0.011024 0.022452 0.046164 0.093823 0.198697
2025-11-23 0.002592 0.005331 0.010735 0.022293 0.046760 0.096945 0.209737
2025-11-30 0.002507 0.005252 0.010772 0.022805 0.048795 0.103186 0.228040
2025-12-07 0.002303 0.004909 0.010241 0.022076 0.048120 0.103663 0.233705
2025-12-14 0.002159 0.004681 0.009932 0.021794 0.048385 0.106164 0.244111